Consumer Investments

Bonds: Economic Factors that Affect Earnings

Bond prices in the financial markets are inversely proportional to prevailing interest rates, which means if interest rates go up, bond prices go down, and vice versa, if interest rates go down, bond prices go up.

Along with current rates, the future projection of interest rates also affects bonds in that higher expected future rates increase the current demand for long-term bonds, and lower expected future interest rates decreases the current demand for those long-term securities. (The investor does not want to be locked into an interest rate that can reduce long-term overall profits on their portfolios.)

Projections of the future rate of inflation also affects the current demand for long-term bonds. An expected decrease causes the demand for bonds to increase and vice versa. Inflation affects the value of real return on bond investments, and long-term bonds are especially vulnerable to the inflation rate, with the increasing risk coinciding with time to maturity. Stated simply, the longer the time to maturity on a bond, the higher the interest rate risk.

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Business cycles also affect the supply of and demand for bonds, thus affecting overall potential earnings. If the economy is expanding, more corporations and municipalities take on debt to maximize growth and supply more bonds to the markets, and the corresponding demand for those bonds increases. If the economy is in decline, (or recession), the number of new bonds issued decreases, along with the demand for previously existing bonds. However, if the Federal deficit is increasing, the US government will make available more government securities to investors.

One tried and true method bond investors use for minimizing interest rate risk, whether due to downward turns in the economy, variations in benchmark interest rates, or increases in the rate of inflation, is diversification. By purchasing a variety of bonds with varying maturity dates, investment risks are evened out to withstand changing economic factors that affect earnings on bonds.


Related Pages

Bonds: An Introduction
Bond Issuers: Corporations, Municipalities, and the U.S. Government
Mutual Funds: An Introduction
Stocks: An Introduction
Sectors in the Stock Market
Investing: The Power of Compounding and the Time Value of Money
Investing: The Importance of Diversification
Investing: Glossary

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